When do flight cancellations start to affect previously confirmed reservations?

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Update: About a week after Turkish published their new schedule (and a few days after I posted my question above), I received a notification that 3 out of the 4 flights had been cancelled, with a link to an online tool to change or cancel my flights:

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I opted for "Cancel", which presented a calculation showing that the flights would be refunded in full, and and two clicks later my "refund request has been processed". So two thumbs up to Turkish for making the cancellation process smooth, although I expect it will still take months for the refund to actually make its way to my credit card.

Update #2: Turns out the refund was processed on the same day! This is astonishingly fast, since for comparison, it took me over 6 months to get my money back from Singapore Airlines for another COVID cancellation.

Upvote:1

Should've been logged within a few hours (though there's no hard and fast deadline). That said, I say use their incompetence to your advantage. Until 14 days before departure, just wait for a confirmation without doing anything. After that, not only are you entitled to a full refund, but also the (in)famous EC261 compensation.

You should be harsh when requesting a full refund, as I was when requesting Eurowings to re-route me after a cancellation. I wrote in the very first message that my rights apply regardless of the circumstances, that I advise against pulling the COVID-19 card, and that I "WILL drag them to court if need be". That made them budge (though barely so it seems)

Upvote:2

How long does it take for schedule changes to filter down to individual reservations?

I've seen as as little as a week before departure. Maybe even less. The airline is playing "cancellation chicken" and hoping that passengers will cancel proactivley when they get nervous.

As long as the arline doesn't accept new reservations for this flight, there is no risk to them for not cancelling officially until the very last minute. Maybe things are back to normal in December or regulations ease up.

Even if they finally do cancel, they will probably try to give you a voucher instead of a refund. You must insist in the refund and NOT accept the voucher. Ideally in writing by certified mail.

I would sit tight for a while. December is still pretty far out and there are no "deadlines" you need to follow. Try again two weeks before departure and see what the state is then.

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