How did one's statistical chance of survival as a hidden Jew change during the course of the Nazi occupation of northern France?

Upvote:1

The closer to the end of World War II, the better the chances of survival. Basically, it was a matter of "running out the clock."

First, the closer to the end of the war, the fewer days (and chances) for someone to be "caught." In this regard, geography played a role. People in many parts of France and Poland were "safe" after August 1944 because of Allied liberation. Those in Germany needed to hold out until spring, 1945.

Second, many people survived for some days or months after being caught and sent to a camp (if not immediately exterminated on arrival). Anne Frank was caught in August, 1944 and died in February-March 1945. Move the timeline three months to November, and she might have survived.

Finally, as others have pointed out, the closer to the end of the war, the lesser chance of denunciation and arrest. When the Nazis started losing, people wanted to avoid being on the losing side (all other things being equal). And toward the end of the war, the military and police were more concerned about defending the "homeland" from invasion than rounding up Jews.

Upvote:2

I don't think that any statistics of this sort is available, but the anecdotic evidence is plentiful. One of the greatest mathematicians of 20th century, Marcel Riesz, just spent his time locked in an apartment in Budapest, some friends bringing him food, and survived. Another famous mathematician, Laurent Schwatz, and his wife, spent all the time of the war in France, with fake documents, under some other name. (Most examples I know are about mathematicians, but this is simply because I am mostly interested in their biographies, there is nothing special about mathematicians of course). Many Ukrainians hid Jews in their homes (with enormous risk for themselves and their families). Of course this happened in other countries too, but I just know the situation in Ukraine better.

When I was a child (in Western Ukraine) I knew personally several Jews who survived the German occupation in Western Ukraine. (Unfortunately, they were reluctant to tell the details of their stories because of the political conditions in Soviet Union at that time. People who survived the occupation were severely discriminated. And I as a very young boy, did not apply all my abilities to extract as much as possible from their stories. Which I regret now).

There are many stories like this from countries of the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and even from Germany itself. But it is hard, perhaps impossible, to say how many people really survived the German occupation by hiding.

Upvote:4

I don't think that there is any evidence that the risk of neighbours denouncing you increased as the end of the war approached. Actually, the opposite is probably true.

The evidence that I have seen in declassified Special Operations Executive (SOE) files at the UK National archives in Kew (especially HS 13), suggests that people increasingly wanted to be seen not to collaborate with the Nazis as the end of the war approached (at least provided the Germans didn't find out!). In fact, as it became obvious that Germany would lose, more people in France became actively involved with the Resistance - including some who had been suspected of being collaborators earlier in the war.

The risk of being identified as a collaborator probably deterred many who might otherwise have denounced their neighbours in return for a reward of food or money.

As for the wider questions of French persecution of Jews and collaboration with the Nazi occupiers, the overview presented in this article is worth reading.

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