What do I need to know about Syria's history to understand the 2011-2012 uprising?
score:17
The most important thing for an outsider to understand is that Syria, while ethnically nearly 90% Arab, is made up of a rather large amount of religious minorities. Like most middle-east states, its borders were set up by Europeans during the colonial era, and really paid no heed to any actual cultural boundaries.
Only about half the population is Sunni Muslim, with most of the rest being Shi'a, and about 12% Christian.
Probably the most important religious group to take note of is the Alawites. This group is important because the country's current leadership is Alawite. This has a couple of important implications. First off, this particular minority is (perhaps rightly) afraid of what the rest will do to them if they lose power, and thus Alawites have not been very quick to join the uprising. There were efforts early on to recruit them into what has otherwise been a pan-Syrian uprising, but it doesn't seem to have borne much fruit. Some of the worst atrocities against the protesters have been carried out by "government-backed" militias, which I highly suspect are mostly Alawite.
The second important implication of this is that the current leadership, being Shi'a in a majority Sunni country, has traditionally had the benefit of strong support (really an alliance) from Shi'a-run Iran. If the current government falls, no matter what else happens, Iran loses. Fortunately, Syria doesn't share a border with Iran, or you'd likely see Iranian military units in the country "restoring peace". As it is, one can still expect Iran to do what they can to prop up their ally.
Another important player to keep an eye on is Hezbollah. This is a Shia (yes, often terrorist) militia in neighboring Lebanon. They are a big player in Lebanon, but are generally seen as a Syrian and Iranian puppet. They've more or less kept out of things so far, but they can't be happy at the thought of losing one of their patrons.
Another very important player here is Turkey. All of the middle east used to be ruled from Istanbul, and the Turks still like to think of themselves as the protector of their nearby Muslim neighbors. As a democracy (and Sunni) themselves, they are very sympathetic to what the uprising is trying to achieve, and they share almost all of Syria's northern border. So casus-belli incidents like Turkish planes getting shot down are very serious developments that the Syrian government should be trying very hard to avoid. Oh yeah, Turkey is also a full-fleged member of NATO, so if they engage in military action, they have the implicit (and likely explicit) backing of the USA.
Yet another important party is Russia. They have been sort of a minor ally to the current Syrian regime, and have a very important (to them) naval base agreement with them. They at one point took the step of sending in some marines to secure that base. If they wanted to intervene to support their ally, it would almost certainly start from that base.
Upvote:1
Off the top of my head, things to learn in order to understand the pretext of the current Syrian civil war:
Religions:
- Sunni Islam
- Alawi Islam
- Christianity
- Druze
Ethnicity:
- Arab
- Kurds
- Palestinians
Borders Formation:
- Sykes-Picot Agreement
- Arab-Israeli war of 1948
- Arab-Israeli war of 1967
Politics:
- Baath-ism
- Hafiz el Assad's regime and civil oppression
- Arab Spring
- Syria's role in the cold war and its relationships with the Soviet Union/Russia
- Syria-Iran partnership
- Syria-Hezbollah relationships
Civil war:
- Arab spring
- The formation of Daesh (ISIS)
- Saudi and Qatari involvement
I think that this could be a good start.
Upvote:4
I like the other answer by TED and I upvoted it. But there are things that can be added.
First, Syria is the last country in the Muslim world that nominally declares itself "socialist". The other two, Libya and Iraq has been already invaded by the United States and their governments overthrown, so currently only Syria is remaining on the list.
In addition to what TED said I want to mention other players in the region.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Both are absolute monarchies and strong allies of the USA. They also strong proponents of Wahhabi fundamentalism and sponsors of Islamist insurrection in many countries, including Russia, Libya and Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia and Qatar openly support the rebels with weapons.
The USA. The main sponsor and inspirator behind the insurrection. As admits Voice of America (citing The New York Times) the CIA is supplying weapons to the rebels as well.
http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/content/us-arms-syria/1216767.html
- Israel. Syria has a territorial dispute with Israel over Golan Heights. Israel took them during the last Israeli-Syrian war in 1982. Syria has an armistice signed with Israel which is in force for 40 years by now.
In addition to that I want to mention is that Turkey already formed a shadow Syrian cabinet on its territory which is a classic prelude for a war. Russia supports Syria not only because of the naval base but also because they believe that they will be invaded by the USA or Saudi-sponsored rebels right after Syria and Iran. Russia wants to postpone its place in the queue.
Upvote:12
While other posters have addressed the issue in regards to the wider region, none have addressed the issue in regards to the Syrian citizens. They have mentioned the different Syrian religions so I won't go back over that.
The current Syrian ruling family (I am referring to the Assads, not the Baath) is known to be a brutal torturer. Early in the uprising we heard of anti-Assad poets being found floating in a river after having their larynx torn out, and of people being returned home in boxes. That is, multiple boxes per person. We don't hear that anymore, but I assume that it is still happening. Israeli citizens on the northern border have feared the Syrians for decades.
This means that the Syrian population is in fear of the ruling family, and by extension the ruling Baath party. Every military conscript knows that his family members will be tortured if he defects. The fact that they do anyway is amazing. As an Israeli soldier I have learned to respect the Syrian soldiers as they are probably the most professional army in the middle east other than our own. There are many stories of Syrian soldier "heros" from various wars with them, and in fact even today they loose on average 1 soldier per month in chemical-warfare training alone. So we are talking about an extremely well-trained and well-disciplined army, in fear of their families' lives, who are deserting anyway. That says a lot.
Note also that the civilians are also well armed, or at least were in the beginning of the uprising. The Syrian defence ministry arms the citizens with rifles and anti-tank weaponry in case of Israeli attack. They never thought that the citizens would turn those arms against them, due to the reasons mentioned above (fear of torture).
If I might add my own speculation in addition to the fact, I dare speculate that most Syrians don't care what religion, party, or family rules so long as they rule justly. I say this from conversations with Lebanese and Palestinians who know that their lives are better under Hezbollah and Israeli rule, even though in a perfect world they would be ruled by their own kin. People in the middle east aren't fed "democracy and freedom" from a young age, and they don't care about either democracy or freedom. They do care about having secure work and a safe home for their families. The Palestinians see that their quality of life is better than the "free" Jordanians, and Jordan is widely regarded to have a very wise and just king. Likewise, the Lebanese feel safer under Hezbollah rule and a puppet prime minister than they did when the sides were fair but fighting. I therefore speculate that the Syrians do not oppose Alawite rule, but do oppose being ruled by fear.
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