Risks with applying for National Interest Exception for Travel to the US

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I imagine that due to the drop in international travel, the CBP may have considerably more time to examine each VWP traveler more thoroughly, and maybe having a National Interest Exception would invite even more scrutiny?

Or that they have less personnel working at the borders.

The plan is for us to travel with exceptions and ESTAs.

This sounds weird to me. Either you travel with an exception, or with an ESTA. An ESTA is specifically valid for business trips, where your company has legitimate interest to send you to the US, and you are paid by your own company for that. Or if you pursue future business interests in the US (e.g. seek a business agreement)

To answer your question

Are we likely to face significantly stricter scrutiny of whether our activities are permissible under the VWP, either due to the exception or due to the special COVID situation in general?

Don't assume any. Never. You should never travel assuming you won't get sufficient scrutiny. Border officers are trained and do their job very well. So expect to be scrutinized with the same attention they will pay in non-pandemic times. Your employer is doing paperwork for you, so this counts towards you.

Will a rejection of an application for a National Interest Exception for Travel lead to permanent negative consequences for future travel to the US?

Reading it correctly, likely no. Being denied a visa or entry under VWP (if you are rejected at the border) will have consequences. But an application for an exception is not a classic visa application, so you should be fine with a no as an answer.

In general, yes, I am sorry. It will also affect your future travel everywhere. Affecting means that you will be likely questioned a lot on almost every country you visit that exchanges passengers data with the US, for some extended periods of time. When you will be requesting a visa, a past rejection from the US may require explanation, but won't necessarily deny you visa or right to enter.

I haven't read the other full question, but it is my personal belief that if your employer is on err, officers will take this into account when examining future requests, which you will have to explain.

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