Is strategic bombing as ineffective as this math suggests?

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It's an interesting way to look at it, but you do state a false equivalence. Not all strategic bombing was aimed at disrupting oil production, and allied production was not equal.

Anything that could possibly help the German war effort was targeted: factories, bridges, harbours, railroads, etc.

Apart from that, a very significant tonnage of bombs (stand by for sources...) was dropped on civilian city centres. This was done to turn the population against the war.

At the end of the day, the allies didn't have to be cost (fuel) efficent about it either. Going by wikipedia, the US produced 833m tonnes of oil during the war, vs Germany's 33m.

Even if that 33m ton was yearly (unbombed) production, that still wouldn't be half of what the US churned out.

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