What historical evidence do we have for the Prophet Muhammed?
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The answer to your question is very simple: there is no contemporary historical evidence concerning Muhammad, in the same way that there is no contemporary evidence about Jesus, Moses, the Buddha, Zoroaster etc. etc.
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Hoyland wrote Seeing Islam as other saw it which contains:
The book contains an extensive collection of Greek, Syrian, Coptic, Armenian, Latin, Jewish, Persian, and Chinese primary sources written between 620 and 780 AD in the Middle East, which provides a survey of eyewitness accounts of historical events during the formative period of Islam.
He believes that 'the first explicit reference to Muhammad in a non-Muslim source' is in a 7th Century Manuscript by Thomas the Presbyter
"In the year 945, indiction 7, on Friday 7 February (634) at the ninth hour, there was a battle between the Romans and the Arabs of Muhammad (tayyaye d-Mhmt) in Palestine twelve miles east of Gaza. The Romans fled, leaving behind the patrician Bryrdn, whom the Arabs killed. Some 4000 poor villagers of Palestine were killed there, Christians, Jews and Samaritans. The Arabs ravaged the whole region".
Another book which presents the historiography of Early Islam is Hagarism. They "They introduced methods from biblical studies as a new way of analyzing the history of the Koran and Islam, for instance, the use of contemporary texts in languages other than that used in the holy text, and incorporating evidence from archeology and linguistics".
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