Were cities that enacted lockdowns during the 1918 flu pandemic successful in preventing any infections?
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Denver, Colorado is a good sample of the results when the measures start early, but are revoked too soon.
The goal of the lockdown is to prevent people meeting and transferring the virus on to others.
When started early, less people are effected and don't pass it on.
On Armistice Day (1918-11-11), people gathered together to celebrate with the result that the virus was passed on to others.
During the next 11 days, those newly infected, passed it on to others until the measures were reinstated.
This is the effect when such measures start too late. More people are affected and they in turn pass it on to others.
Had the measures not have been revoked, the second 'hump' would not have occurred (the effected people on the 11th would not have passed it on had they remained isolated) .
- 1918-09-27: first death
- 1918-10-06: first bans
- 1918-10-15: 1.440 cases
- 1918-11-11: removed, including face masks
- 1918-11-18: 100 cases daily
- 1918-11-22: reinstated (25th face masks)
- 6000 cases, 500 deaths
- 1918-11-27: 438 new cases, 17 deaths
- 1918-12-31: 12.718 influenza cases, 1.218 deaths
St. Louis also imposed restrictions but did not revoke them for Armistice day: no second hump for that period. The restrictions were lifted on the 20th of December and reimposed 1 month later.
Philadelphia imposed no restrictions, which together with a higher, denser population caused the highest numbers of the US cities.
San Francisco, which was spared the first wave of spring of 1918, was aware of the problem but only reacted after the first cases became noticeable.
Deaths per 100.000 (above the expected usual death rate):
- New York 452
- St. Louis 356
- Denver 631
- San Francisco 672
- Philadelphia 748
- See How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu with English text description
- and 37 other US cities
2020-04-29: 10 days into a relaxed shutdown
- Active cases: 21.46% of total cases (6 weeks into lockdown)
- 2020-04-06: 70.49% of total cases (3 weeks into lockdown)
A major difference to 1918 is that a social distance and encouraged usage of face masks requirements are still in place.
Sources:
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